"Where can I find a Tunisian flag?" The question flooded Egyptian blogs, tweeter and Facebook pages minutes after news that popular protests had forced out long-time Tunisian dictator Zine el Abidine Ben Ali.
Egypt is feeling the ripple effect from Tunisia already. Egypt’s 85 million people constitute a third of the Arab population. Until Tunisians ousted their autocratic ruler Friday evening after his 23 years in power, Egypt, a regional trendsetter, was seen as the first candidate for regime change by popular uprising in the Arab world.
John R. Bradley penned a book in June 2008 predicting a revolution in Egypt. He said the country was slowly disintegrating under the twin pressures of "a ruthless military dictatorship" at home and a flawed Middle East policy in Washington.
In his book, ‘Inside Egypt: The Land of the Pharaohs on the Brink of a Revolution’, Bradely argued that Egypt was "the most brutal Arab state where torture and corruption are endemic" and it would therefore be "the next domino to fall" to popular anger. The book was banned in Egypt.
Today the view from Cairo is that the military-backed regime of 82-year-old President Hosni Mubarak is far more formidable, and more subtle, than the brutal regime of Ben Ali that alienated its own people, and failed to handle the unrest when it first erupted Dec. 17. Mubarak’s supporters say he carries the public with him, and has a wide support base that includes the army and many businessmen.
"We should remember that he has survived at least three assassination attempts and hundreds of protests and demonstrations against food prices and other issues," says Khaled Mahmoud, an independent analyst. "Mubarak is simply much stronger than Ben Ali, and enjoys the backing of the country’s most powerful institution; the army."
Mahmoud argues that Ben Ali was shown up during the protests as a "weak" president. "His performance was very weak. Tunisians sensed his fragility and realised that what they were afraid of was just an illusion."
Mubarak is credited with a "smart" grip on power – occasionally allowing freedoms that help vent anger.
"The regime channels some anger through talk shows, tolerating some street protests, critical opinion pieces in newspapers, strikes and sits-in," Amr Elshobaki, political analyst with the semi-official Al-Ahram Centre for Strategic Studies in Cairo told IPS. "That helps release some frustration rather than leaving it to build up into a major sweeping force."
Elshobaki points to another difference between Egypt and Tunisia. Labour unions in Tunisia had appeased the regime to a degree, but they kept their structure and some of their integrity, he says. Unions in Egypt "have become like a government entity. Their leaders are government staff."
"The rationale for revolt is the same. The people are the same. The general atmosphere is the same," says Abdelmonem Amer, editor of the Islamist- leaning Arab News. "Tunisia’s tyrant ran away. It is Egypt’s Pharaoh’s turn. Today, it is Tunisia and tomorrow it is Egypt."
