http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/mar/17/sudan-quieter-revolution/print
Southern Sudanese celebrate the result of the referendum that showed a vast majority in favour of independence from the north. Photograph: Pete Muller/AP
Since the end of January, regular protests have taken place in northern Sudan, but they have not had the same impact or turnout as those in Egypt or Yemen, for example.
Many people ask why they have fallen short of expectations. Sudan seems ripe for protests and, certainly to the untrained eye, in the light of the secession of the south, and the government's worse-than-lacklustre human rights record, it would be natural to expect more demonstrations.
Prices of food, petrol and commodities have gone up, corruption within the ranks of the ruling National Congress party (NCP) is rife and, most importantly, Sudan has a richer history of popular revolt than any other Arab country.
Many reasons are cited: political apathy, the strong arm of the security forces, the lack of social networking on the internet, and the suggestion that perhaps there just isn't as strong a sense of disaffection as people expect.
In my view it is something less tangible, more attitudinal. Speaking to people in Khartoum and surrounding areas, I found a wariness, a feeling in the air that people have had enough of political instability. Unlike most other Arab countries, Sudan has witnessed several governments since independence, each with its own unique predilection for failure. Military dictatorships, flirtations with communism, Islamism and a toothless liberal civil government of elites have all instilled a sense of fatigue. Add to this the seismic shift of the separation of the south, and you have a recipe for caution – an almost unconscious cognisance of the fragility of the moment and a negligible appetite for more upheaval.
the website Sudan Protests – Rebellion HQ stated that "as the south prepares to break away after voting for independence in January's referendum, the desire for peace is at least as strong as the thirst for freedom and change". It quotes a senior international official in Khartoum as saying: "This is not a place where nothing has happened. Stability is a virtue for enough people."
However, even though the protests have not been of the scale of those in Egypt, Libya, Bahrain or Yemen, we shouldn't be quick to dismiss them as merely the infectious spasms passed on by the fall of Mubarak and Ben Ali. Upon closer inspection, in small increments, things could be changing.
There are two types of protests in the country. The first is emulative, modelled on the Tunisian and Egyptian experiences with youth and students on Facebook organising events where "our day" will come.
The second – more recent – wave is more spontaneous, in response either to living conditions, police brutality or isolated grievances and incidents that have sparked chagrin. Against the backdrop of other Arab protests thus far, these seem insignificant, but the images of thousands, even millions of people out on the streets of the Arab world should not desensitise us to the importance of such events, and more crucially, the response of the government to them.
Amid reports of detention and torture of protesters, there are also signs of fear and nervousness manifested in random concessions. In what appears to be a pre-emptive move, President Omar al-Bashir announced that he will not be running in the next elections.
This has created a situation where people are beginning to be aware of the power of such protests and using them to spook the government into acting
Two weeks ago, impromptu protests in Khartoum were ignited by a car accident on a residential street that had been allowed to turn into a busy highway because of a lack of planning. Hardly Tahrir Square, but for the capital it was a rare example of the public getting a normally unresponsive government to act.
By the end of the day, after the riot police were sent in, workers had been sent to install traffic lights. The demonstration was disbanded and people did not feel a need to turn it into anything more widespread. The default position of violent crackdown is still in play, but there is a now conciliatory pitch there too, as the government experiments with striking the right tone.
There are now further – planned – protests on 21 March. Between these and the emboldened spontaneous demands of average people across the north, a new dynamic may emerge. It is still early days, but even if there is no regime change, the relationship between people and power is being redefined. If it means that this will lead to reform, more political participation and a less intransigent, dismissive and impune government, then there is a quieter revolution under way.
