Thursday, March 3, 2011

Yemen: A revolution in waiting? : Reuters

The protesters may represent a new, educated generation but their protests are inspired by the old problems of widespread poverty, corruption and inequality and the deep sense that the long-entrenched regime of Saleh and his puppet government is unable to fulfill their aspirations.

While the protesters share similar motivations to those who dislodged presidents elsewhere, it is still far from clear whether Yemeni demonstrators will attain the same level of success. But what is certain is that Yemen's political landscape is becoming as complicated as the country itself.

Tribal politics

In the twists and turns of Yemeni politics, the past week has been particularly significant and the country's complex tribal dynamics have been at the fore of the unfolding developments.

A key moment came when Hussein al-Ahmar, a chief in the Hashid tribal confederation - Yemen's second-largest but most powerful tribal confederation - joined the protesters, promising to offer them protection from attack by regime loyalists.

Hussein al-Ahmar is the son of the late Abdullah al-Ahmar, the former leader of the Hashid, who as a longtime ally of the president was showered with the rewards and privileges Saleh has long utilised to maintain his grip on power.

Al-Ahmar announced his resignation from the ruling General People's Congress at a rally, attended by members of the Hashid and Baqil - Yemen's largest tribal confederation, in the northern Amran province - joining his brother, Hamid, an outspoken critic of the president's policies, and in particular the appointment of Saleh's relatives to top military positions, in the ranks of the opposition.

Saleh's tactic of lavishing rewards upon tribal chiefs in return for their loyalty seems to be unravelling and the president is now harvesting the seeds of his unjust policies. But he responded firmly to the tribal challenge, stressing that the country's armed forces would not hesitate to defend the security of the nation and vowing that he and his colleagues in the army would fight until the last drop of their blood is spilled.

Joining the revolution

The actions of the established opposition parties, however, seem to have pushed Saleh to soften his stance.

When the demonstrations began there was a wide gulf between the demands of the established opposition and those of the protesting youth. While those out on the streets of cities across the country wanted Saleh overthrown, the opposition leaders appeared to be in favour of negotiating with the president in the hope of securing concessions that might lead to more fundamental political reforms.

Despite these differences, the established opposition welcomed the leaderless street revolt from the sidelines.

But when the opposition threatened to join the protesters in their push to bring him down, Saleh showed a new-found willingness to negotiate. He ordered the formation of a government committee to establish dialogue with the protesting youth and declared his readiness to form a unity government with the opposition.